Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Saturday, 28 May 2011
High food and fuel prices
Opposition leaders propose ways out as government refuses to act
Despite increasing pressure to cut taxes on fuel and ban export of food, the government has stuck to its standard `no intervention’ policy on prices.
The recent 3% spike in pump price of fuel from Shs3500 per litre to Shs3600 in one week in mid-May has renewed pressure on the government to act.
Prices of food and other essential commodities continue to rise despite opposition politicians and civil society organisations launching the Walk-to-Work protests in which several people have been killed, hundreds injured, and property destroyed.
Most of the demonstrators have since April 11 demanded that the government cuts taxes on fuel and ban export of food. The government has rejected their demands. In turn, the government has been criticised for lacking an economic model and depending mainly on IMF and World Bank generated generic responses to the crisis.
In our story, `Museveni must fix economy by June’ (The Independent Issue 160) we reported that the IMF blames the current economic crisis on profligate government off-budget spending, especially the purchase of fighter jets and high election spending, and the depletion of foreign reserves.
During a visit in March, Thomas Richardson, IMF mission chief and senior resident representative in Uganda met with Finance Minister Syda Bbumba and listed what Museveni needs to do to fix the economy. Top on the list was rebuilding international reserves, increasing domestic revenues through taxation, using oil revenue and external borrowing to finance large infrastructure projects, reduction of government expenditure arrears, and bringing down inflation by tight control over government expenditure and revenue.
In the past, African governments have been challenged to develop their own models and systems, to take command of the technical analysis, negotiate with the IMF and other funders in more pro-active terms.
A leading proponent of macro-economic models is Oduman Okello, the outgoing shadow Finance Minister from the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party. He accuses the government of relying on “guesswork” for its macro-economic policy.
But Keith Muhakanizi, the Deputy Secretary to the Treasury, says the mere presence of a model is not the ultimate solution.
“Models are only forecasts and the only person who knows the future with certainty is God,” he says in a tone that suggests fatalism.
He adds, however, that the government is “in advanced stages of developing a macroeconomic model to take into account the changing nature of the economy” and has already contracted consultants for the job.
Quick fixes
But Oduman says if his party president, Dr Kizza Besigye, had won the February election and formed a government on May 12 it would, as a quick measure for desperate times, cut taxes on fuel. He says this would provide ‘immediate relief’ to the poor.
Government collects a specific tax of Shs880 per litre of petrol, 530 per litre of diesel and 200 per litre of paraffin.
He says other ‘quick fixes’ would include restricting the export of essential food products like grain, revitalisation of the fuel reserves and ‘ring fencing’ the proceeds from Uganda’s oil for the development of other energy sources like hydro-electric power. Oduman says insufficient energy supplies exaggerate the need for oil in Uganda’s economy.
This FDC position is similar to that proposed by the opposition Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and the Democratic Party (DP). UPC in a statement titled, “A Responsible government is duty bound to aid citizens in times of distress” says as a matter of priority, the government should temporarily ban exports of food (from drought and hunger stricken areas) to neighbouring countries, cut the tax on fuel and “immediately declare a state of emergency and national disaster, to attract international humanitarian and food aid for the starving population”.
The other measures they suggest include rolling out credible measures to tame inflation, punish those implicated in corruption, and impose price ceilings for essential commodities.
They further suggest that government restocks the strategic national fuel reserves to cushion the country from global fuel price fluctuations, stops wasteful and extravagant expenditures and keeps spending within authorised budgetary limits.
Issa Kikungwe, the DP Treasurer, says his party favours cutting taxes on fuel, restocking the oil reserves and work on the ‘leakage of public funds’. He says only about 40 percent of the budgeted resources are used for service provision and the rest is stolen under the current government. In its manifesto, DP also promised ‘massive’ investment in the agricultural sector.
So why is the government not intervening as proposed by its critics?
Part of the problem is that intervention could lead to unintended consequences especially if the intervention package is wrongly premised.
The World Bank Director of Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Programmes for Africa, Marcelo Giugale, in a widely circulated op-ed column advised governments facing high food and fuel prices to “keep their nerve, let markets work.” He said banning food exports could either fail or backfire.
“Countries that usually purchase food from you may soon enough look for other countries to import their food from and stop buying your other exports too,” Giugale wrote in article re-published in The Independent this month.
Uganda exports food mainly to South Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, and DR Congo. Most of the trade is informal and unrecorded but Uganda Bureau of Statistics in 2009 put the value at US$15 million for simsim (sesame), US$17 million for beans and other legumes, and US$18 million for maize.
The government faced similar demands at the height of famine in 2009 but refused to officially reverse its liberal market policy. There was, however, an informal ban as several trucks ferrying cereals and green bananas (matooke) across borders were blocked. At the time, President Yoweri Museveni said Uganda’s exports were fetching up to US$2.8 billion. At the time, the national budget was about Shs5 trillion (approx. US$ 2 billion at the May 2011 exchange rates).
The Tanzanian government temporarily banned food exports last year over scarcity of maize. But Tanzania’s minister of Agriculture, Prof. Jumanne Maghembe, in April admitted the ban was ineffective and had spurred smuggling into Uganda and Kenya.
Following the current high commodity prices, Kenya has intervened and cut taxes on kerosene by 30%, diesel by 20%, on maize, and wheat. It also waived school fees in some hard-hit areas, and promised an across the board increase in the minimum wage. The Kenyan government has, however, not waived the taxes completely as promised by Prime Minister Raila Odinga. In fact, on May 14, the country’s Energy Regulatory Authority announced a hike in the price of oil products.
The World Bank official said instead of banning food exports, the government should provide ‘additional transfers of cash’ for those that cannot fend for themselves, especially in urban areas. The UPC proposes “attracting international attention for food and humanitarian assistance.”
Fundamental problems
Fuelling the current crisis, says Oduman, are the basic problems of the economy’s fundamentals related to production. He says the area to focus on to fix the ‘fundamentals’ is Bank of Uganda. He says the central bank should stop ‘artificial inducement’ by injecting money into the economy which is not backed by production or foreign reserves. This, he says, is a symptom of economic ‘ill health’ which he says has been engendered by many years of ‘economic mismanagement’.
In the medium and long term, he says the FDC government would concentrate on putting the fundamentals right. He says it is key to fix the “problem of the economy being dominated by services other than agriculture or manufacturing” when about 80 percent of Ugandans are engaged in agriculture.
The contribution of agriculture to Uganda’s income has been declining steadily, from 53.9 percent in 1985/86 to 22.8 percent in 2009/10, while industry and services grew from 9.9 percent and 36.1 percent to 23.2% and 47.8 percent respectively over the same period. The government says this does not show that agriculture is declining but that industry is growing at a faster rate.
But Oduman says that the declining contribution of agriculture to national income which has not been matched by the movement of people from agriculture to the other sectors means the people involved in the agricultural sector, who are the majority, have gotten relatively worse off.
By prioritising other sectors and neglecting agriculture, says Oduman, the NRM government wants “the country to run before it is able to walk”. In its 2011 election manifesto, FDC pledged to increase funding for the agricultural sector “from 3.8 percent to 12 percent”.
Oduman says their government would have remedied the situation through providing water for irrigation, streamlining access to land and markets, reviving cooperative societies, pre-fixing prices for agricultural produce and establishing a stabilisation fund.
He adds that his party’s government would focus on cooperative revival based on what he calls demand-driven government structural investments – “people should define what their problem is, what the solution could be and then government comes in to support them,” he says.
Oduman says their team planned to create a macroeconomic model to guide government actions on the economy within three months of taking power.
He says currently, the government uses a financial forecasting model, which he says is only useful in projecting government revenue trends but cannot guide decision making on what measures to take to stimulate the economy. The government urgently needs to develop a macroeconomic programming model for this purpose, he says.
But Dr Isaac Nkote, a consultant and senior lecturer of finance at Makerere University Business School, says the problem is deeper than just creating a model. “There is a lot of work to be done in the direction of understanding how the Ugandan economy works,” he says.
The raw data that is collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, he says, needs to be analysed by experts to arrive at scenarios that would inform economic policy formulation.
He says in Germany, ‘five wise professors’ under the country’s “Council of Economic Experts” constantly monitor the economic variables independent of one another and share ideas on what measures may be needed to direct the economy.
Nkote, says whenever there is a crisis, “intervention is the normal practice even in leading capitalist economies like Germany, the US, Japan and the European Union.
He says countries use macroeconomic models to clarify and illustrate basic theoretical principles, test, compare, and quantify different macroeconomic theories, and produce “what if” scenarios (usually to predict the effects of changes in monetary, fiscal, or other macroeconomic policies) and to generate economic forecasts.
Nkote says the best way for the government to benefit from such a model would be to build the capacity of the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) to carry out the complex technical work required to develop scenarios on the basis of which decisions would be taken.
He says such alternative policies proposed by the opposition to deal with the current situation could be limited because they are not privy to vital government data on which decisions are based and therefore cannot make an informed perspective. As is the practice in democracies, he says, the opposition should be granted access to information from Bank of Uganda and other agencies on the basis of which they can suggest alternative policies.
“Failing that, the opposition parties can only speculate on what could be done,” he says.
Despite increasing pressure to cut taxes on fuel and ban export of food, the government has stuck to its standard `no intervention’ policy on prices.
The recent 3% spike in pump price of fuel from Shs3500 per litre to Shs3600 in one week in mid-May has renewed pressure on the government to act.Prices of food and other essential commodities continue to rise despite opposition politicians and civil society organisations launching the Walk-to-Work protests in which several people have been killed, hundreds injured, and property destroyed.
Most of the demonstrators have since April 11 demanded that the government cuts taxes on fuel and ban export of food. The government has rejected their demands. In turn, the government has been criticised for lacking an economic model and depending mainly on IMF and World Bank generated generic responses to the crisis.
In our story, `Museveni must fix economy by June’ (The Independent Issue 160) we reported that the IMF blames the current economic crisis on profligate government off-budget spending, especially the purchase of fighter jets and high election spending, and the depletion of foreign reserves.
During a visit in March, Thomas Richardson, IMF mission chief and senior resident representative in Uganda met with Finance Minister Syda Bbumba and listed what Museveni needs to do to fix the economy. Top on the list was rebuilding international reserves, increasing domestic revenues through taxation, using oil revenue and external borrowing to finance large infrastructure projects, reduction of government expenditure arrears, and bringing down inflation by tight control over government expenditure and revenue.
In the past, African governments have been challenged to develop their own models and systems, to take command of the technical analysis, negotiate with the IMF and other funders in more pro-active terms.
A leading proponent of macro-economic models is Oduman Okello, the outgoing shadow Finance Minister from the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party. He accuses the government of relying on “guesswork” for its macro-economic policy.
But Keith Muhakanizi, the Deputy Secretary to the Treasury, says the mere presence of a model is not the ultimate solution.
“Models are only forecasts and the only person who knows the future with certainty is God,” he says in a tone that suggests fatalism.
He adds, however, that the government is “in advanced stages of developing a macroeconomic model to take into account the changing nature of the economy” and has already contracted consultants for the job.
Quick fixes
DP Says it would;
| FDC Says it would;
|
 |  |
Government collects a specific tax of Shs880 per litre of petrol, 530 per litre of diesel and 200 per litre of paraffin.
He says other ‘quick fixes’ would include restricting the export of essential food products like grain, revitalisation of the fuel reserves and ‘ring fencing’ the proceeds from Uganda’s oil for the development of other energy sources like hydro-electric power. Oduman says insufficient energy supplies exaggerate the need for oil in Uganda’s economy.
This FDC position is similar to that proposed by the opposition Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and the Democratic Party (DP). UPC in a statement titled, “A Responsible government is duty bound to aid citizens in times of distress” says as a matter of priority, the government should temporarily ban exports of food (from drought and hunger stricken areas) to neighbouring countries, cut the tax on fuel and “immediately declare a state of emergency and national disaster, to attract international humanitarian and food aid for the starving population”.
The other measures they suggest include rolling out credible measures to tame inflation, punish those implicated in corruption, and impose price ceilings for essential commodities.
They further suggest that government restocks the strategic national fuel reserves to cushion the country from global fuel price fluctuations, stops wasteful and extravagant expenditures and keeps spending within authorised budgetary limits.
Issa Kikungwe, the DP Treasurer, says his party favours cutting taxes on fuel, restocking the oil reserves and work on the ‘leakage of public funds’. He says only about 40 percent of the budgeted resources are used for service provision and the rest is stolen under the current government. In its manifesto, DP also promised ‘massive’ investment in the agricultural sector.
So why is the government not intervening as proposed by its critics?
Part of the problem is that intervention could lead to unintended consequences especially if the intervention package is wrongly premised.
The World Bank Director of Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Programmes for Africa, Marcelo Giugale, in a widely circulated op-ed column advised governments facing high food and fuel prices to “keep their nerve, let markets work.” He said banning food exports could either fail or backfire.
“Countries that usually purchase food from you may soon enough look for other countries to import their food from and stop buying your other exports too,” Giugale wrote in article re-published in The Independent this month.Uganda exports food mainly to South Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, and DR Congo. Most of the trade is informal and unrecorded but Uganda Bureau of Statistics in 2009 put the value at US$15 million for simsim (sesame), US$17 million for beans and other legumes, and US$18 million for maize.
The government faced similar demands at the height of famine in 2009 but refused to officially reverse its liberal market policy. There was, however, an informal ban as several trucks ferrying cereals and green bananas (matooke) across borders were blocked. At the time, President Yoweri Museveni said Uganda’s exports were fetching up to US$2.8 billion. At the time, the national budget was about Shs5 trillion (approx. US$ 2 billion at the May 2011 exchange rates).
The Tanzanian government temporarily banned food exports last year over scarcity of maize. But Tanzania’s minister of Agriculture, Prof. Jumanne Maghembe, in April admitted the ban was ineffective and had spurred smuggling into Uganda and Kenya.
Following the current high commodity prices, Kenya has intervened and cut taxes on kerosene by 30%, diesel by 20%, on maize, and wheat. It also waived school fees in some hard-hit areas, and promised an across the board increase in the minimum wage. The Kenyan government has, however, not waived the taxes completely as promised by Prime Minister Raila Odinga. In fact, on May 14, the country’s Energy Regulatory Authority announced a hike in the price of oil products.
The World Bank official said instead of banning food exports, the government should provide ‘additional transfers of cash’ for those that cannot fend for themselves, especially in urban areas. The UPC proposes “attracting international attention for food and humanitarian assistance.”
Fundamental problems
UPC Says it would;
|
 |
In the medium and long term, he says the FDC government would concentrate on putting the fundamentals right. He says it is key to fix the “problem of the economy being dominated by services other than agriculture or manufacturing” when about 80 percent of Ugandans are engaged in agriculture.
The contribution of agriculture to Uganda’s income has been declining steadily, from 53.9 percent in 1985/86 to 22.8 percent in 2009/10, while industry and services grew from 9.9 percent and 36.1 percent to 23.2% and 47.8 percent respectively over the same period. The government says this does not show that agriculture is declining but that industry is growing at a faster rate.
But Oduman says that the declining contribution of agriculture to national income which has not been matched by the movement of people from agriculture to the other sectors means the people involved in the agricultural sector, who are the majority, have gotten relatively worse off.
By prioritising other sectors and neglecting agriculture, says Oduman, the NRM government wants “the country to run before it is able to walk”. In its 2011 election manifesto, FDC pledged to increase funding for the agricultural sector “from 3.8 percent to 12 percent”.
Oduman says their government would have remedied the situation through providing water for irrigation, streamlining access to land and markets, reviving cooperative societies, pre-fixing prices for agricultural produce and establishing a stabilisation fund.
He adds that his party’s government would focus on cooperative revival based on what he calls demand-driven government structural investments – “people should define what their problem is, what the solution could be and then government comes in to support them,” he says.
Oduman says their team planned to create a macroeconomic model to guide government actions on the economy within three months of taking power.
He says currently, the government uses a financial forecasting model, which he says is only useful in projecting government revenue trends but cannot guide decision making on what measures to take to stimulate the economy. The government urgently needs to develop a macroeconomic programming model for this purpose, he says.
But Dr Isaac Nkote, a consultant and senior lecturer of finance at Makerere University Business School, says the problem is deeper than just creating a model. “There is a lot of work to be done in the direction of understanding how the Ugandan economy works,” he says.
The raw data that is collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, he says, needs to be analysed by experts to arrive at scenarios that would inform economic policy formulation.
He says in Germany, ‘five wise professors’ under the country’s “Council of Economic Experts” constantly monitor the economic variables independent of one another and share ideas on what measures may be needed to direct the economy.
Nkote, says whenever there is a crisis, “intervention is the normal practice even in leading capitalist economies like Germany, the US, Japan and the European Union.
He says countries use macroeconomic models to clarify and illustrate basic theoretical principles, test, compare, and quantify different macroeconomic theories, and produce “what if” scenarios (usually to predict the effects of changes in monetary, fiscal, or other macroeconomic policies) and to generate economic forecasts.
Nkote says the best way for the government to benefit from such a model would be to build the capacity of the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) to carry out the complex technical work required to develop scenarios on the basis of which decisions would be taken.
He says such alternative policies proposed by the opposition to deal with the current situation could be limited because they are not privy to vital government data on which decisions are based and therefore cannot make an informed perspective. As is the practice in democracies, he says, the opposition should be granted access to information from Bank of Uganda and other agencies on the basis of which they can suggest alternative policies.
“Failing that, the opposition parties can only speculate on what could be done,” he says.
sOURCE: DAILY MONITOR, 28 MAY 2011
One of the cars rioters set ablaze in Mbale yesterday. Eighteen suspects were arrested.
At least five people are confirmed dead as a result of fatal gunshot wounds after a bloody day of rioting, bringing the death toll to 10 people killed since demonstrations began three weeks ago.
Kampala Metropolitan Spokesman Ibin Ssenkumbi last evening identified three of the victims as Samuel Mufumbira, a vendor at the city’s St. Balikuddembe (Owino) Market who was shot in the head, Frank Kizito, shot in Busabala and Ssemuga Kanaabi.
Another two were shot in Bwaise and Bweyogerere, Ssenkumbi said.
Another two were shot in Bwaise and Bweyogerere, Ssenkumbi said.
Uganda Red Cross Society secretary general Michael Nataka seperately confirmed the deaths of two men, in Kasubi and Najjanankumbi. Mr Nataka said the society has attended to at least 200 people, of which 139 were referred to hospital – 20 of these for bullet wounds.
While the riots centered around Kampala and its suburbs, they also took place in five other towns, from Entebbe to Mbale.A two-and-half-year-old baby girl, Patricia Namugenyi, was in critical condition at Mulago after reportedly having been shot in the stomach. Her mother Annet Nabukenya, a Namasuba resident, wailed uncontrollably as she looked on.
Mr Nataka said the bulk of yesterday’s injuries came from Kasangati, Kiwatule/Ntinda, and Najjanankumbi areas.
Mr Nataka said the bulk of yesterday’s injuries came from Kasangati, Kiwatule/Ntinda, and Najjanankumbi areas.
About 700 people have been arrested in total – 400 in the Kampala Metropolitan area alone.
First Son Lt. Col. Kainerugaba Muhoozi, commander of the elite Special Forces Group, personally took charge in what is believed to have been the epicentre of violence, in Kisekka Market downtown.
But soldiers expelled journalists from the area, and blocked those who stayed from photographing their actions. In Jinja town, military police roughed up Saturday Monitor journalist Denis Edema, confiscated his digital camera and deleted pictures of their confrontation with protestors on Kirinya Road until UPDF Spokesman Felix Kulayigye intervened.
On receiving end
Elsewhere, photographers whom some security operatives accused of taking only “bad pictures” found themselves on the receiving end of police beatings.
Ambulances with their sirens blaring were heard across the city throughout the day – continuously delivering the injured to hospital. Among them were two policemen with gunshot wounds and a soldier.
Elsewhere, photographers whom some security operatives accused of taking only “bad pictures” found themselves on the receiving end of police beatings.
Ambulances with their sirens blaring were heard across the city throughout the day – continuously delivering the injured to hospital. Among them were two policemen with gunshot wounds and a soldier.
In Mbale, a government car was torched in a dramatic confrontation – anti-riot police momentarily fled after running out of teargas in the face of advancing protestors.
Police say they arrested 18 suspected rioters in the eastern district.
Traffic on Jinja and Gulu highways was temporarily interrupted – people arriving in affected towns fled back home as automatic weapons rang out.
Police say they arrested 18 suspected rioters in the eastern district.
Traffic on Jinja and Gulu highways was temporarily interrupted – people arriving in affected towns fled back home as automatic weapons rang out.
Military police commandeered armoured vehicles to beat back the protestors who pelted them with stones. The heavily-guarded convoy of Chief of Defense Forces, Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, was stoned at Najjanankumbi on Entebbe Road, but Lt. Col. Kulayigye said the army commander was not in his official vehicle at the time.
“The situation required us to come in to support internal security organs to restore stability and order,” the UPDF spokesman said.Plumes of black smoke filled the city skies and suffocating teargas sent residents scampering for fresh water to wash their burning eyes. Internal Affairs Minister Kirunda Kivejinja is yet to address the press on the day’s mayhem, widely believed to have been sparked by the violent and humiliating arrest of opposition leader, Kizza Besigye on Thursday.
He did however issue a statement on the arrest, justifying police actions that saw Besigye tear-gassed directly in the face, potentially causing permanent eye damage, and brutally dragged from his car
Aronda warns protestors
SOURCE: DAILY MONITOR, 28 MAY 2011
Gen. Nyakairima, shows the portrait presented to him by the Iganga Municipality mayor during the swearing in ceremony in Iganga .
The Chief of Defence Forces Gen. Aronda Nyakairima has sternly warned protestors and their leaders, saying they cannot go far.
Gen. Nyakairima advised the leaders of the ongoing walk-to-work protests to lead their people to work instead of violence, the process of choosing leaders has passed and now it was time for work.
“You voted for peace not violence,” said Gen. Nyakairima who was the guest speaker at the swearing-in ceremony of the mayor and councillors of the newly-elevated Iganga Municipality.
Gen. Nyakairima said the country is now peaceful and protestors are wasting time, and called on the leaders of Busoga to shun violence because it would lead them to trouble.Kampala and several towns in the country have experienced protests over skyrocketing commodity and fuel prices. The government says the opposition leaders are using prices to ride into power. So far, two protest schemes, “walk-to-work” and “ride-and-hoot” have generated interest locally and internationally.
“Anyone who disturbs the peace you are enjoying is choosing a dangerous path,” he said. He called on the Basoga to unite in educating their children by improving UPE standards and embrace Naads as a way to fight poverty from the region.
The UPDF chief castigated the Busoga leaders who pull each other down, as the main reason development has eluded several parts of the region. “The time for politics has ended. Now lead your people to work and not violence,” said Gen. Nyakairima.
He continued that the tendencies of leaders pulling each other down has only brought socio-economic stagnation for the region and challenged the new politicians to start their term in office by putting aside their political differences.
“What the common person expects from you, despite your political leanings, are services reaching them,” he said.
Friday, 27 May 2011
This Is It-How Besigye Vindicated Intelligence Agencies!
This Is It-How Besigye Vindicated Intelligence Agencies!
SOURCE: THE RED PEPPER, 27 MAY 2011
Besigye
They say that some men are borne great while others work their way to greatness.
And President Museveni worked his way to greatness but he has also inadvertently made Besigye great.
At least the last two months attest to this.
Col. Besigye’s hitherto dwindling political fortunes have been enhanced, thanks to the violent crackdown by the Ugandan security agencies on Besigye’s comical walk-to-work protests propelling him into a huge political figure who deserves both local and international attention.
And as we speak now Besigye is the most talked about opposition politician in African politics.
He has surpassed the profiles of great opposition African leaders like Morgan Tsivangirai of Zimbabwe, Raila Oginga Odinga of Kenya, Mohamed El-Baradei of Egypt, Etienne Tsisiekedie of Congo and others.
Yet during the campaigns en-route to the February 18, 2011 presidential elections, the now stubborn Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) leader Col. Kizza Besigye was losing political relevance at a high pace due to Museveni’s indefatigable campaigns routine.
To cut a short story even shorter, Museveni simply de-campaigned Besigye into submission.
And when elections were announced we all thought it as was game over for Besigye. No wonder his FDC comrades started questioning and challenging his continuity as the leader of the FDC party.
BESIGYE’S PLAN B
But just trust this Mukiga man from Rukungiri. He had plans A and B. He planned that if elections failed to uproot Museveni he would revert to protests as plan B.
Plan A (elections) failed but plan B (protests) have worked miracles for him.
Now Besigye has not only metamorphosed from being a mere political nuisance but he has managed to put Museveni where he wanted him to be (as a scorned African leader who has clung on to power for so long).
Surprisingly enough, President Museveni was given intelligence reports about what Besigye was planning.
But the President casually dismissed them as rubbish. At the advent of the walk-to-work riots President Museveni told the journalists at his country home in Rwakitura that his intelligence people had written reports that Besigye was planning all sorts of stuff that would bring down the government.
Museveni rubbished the reports saying that Besigye was actually planning nothing!
But the intelligence reports seemed to have been very much spot on.
I mean, Besigye almost overthrew President Museveni’s government through these comical protests.
UGANDA’S INTELLIGENCE HISTORY
There is evidence to show that Uganda’s intelligence has been the most effective military institution in all governments since independence.
The Obote 1 intelligence agency NASA fed President Milton Obote with information that the then Col. Amin Dada was plotting something funny. But Obote took the information lightly and was easily overthrown by Amin in 1971.
During Amin’s time it’s strongly believed that the most effective institution of his government was the State Research Bureau. Although many people were killed under unclear circumstances, it’s strongly believed that all those who were executed by firing squad were guilty of participating in subversive activities.
And indeed most of the people who were executed like Nkoko of Busoga and others from Kabale had been members of Museveni’s FRONASA guerilla cells.
And it’s also on record that during the post Amin era in 1980 a man called Amon Bazira who was heading Ugandan intelligence predicted that there would be genocide in Rwanda. And indeed the genocide took place in Rwanda in 1994, fifteen years after Bazira’s intelligence report.
And in the 1980s, his intelligence, NASA, was so effective that at one time they captured the entire high command of one of the rebel groups called Uganda Freedom Movement (UFM). Those captured included former minister Balaki Kirya who was shipped from Nairobi in a car boot. The UFM Chief of Staff himself called Col. Mark Kodili was also captured from the Mpigi forests by government troops.
By the way this Col. Kodili is the father of my very good friend and Red Pepper Sports Editor called Gazzaman Gazza (real names Charles Kodili). And I usually tease him on how his father, who was the whole commander, could be captured like a grasshopper!
On several occasions Obote’s intelligence managed to track the then NRA rebel Chief Yoweri Museveni, so well that they just stopped short of capturing him.
One former Obote minister told me that at one time he got information that some ragtag NRA rebels were crossing to Western Uganda. He then went and told President Obote about it.
But Obote thought that this NRA group was fleeing to Zaire and immediately telephoned his counter-part President Joseph Mobutu and told him to prepare to receive some refugees.
President Obote took no military action!
And it turned out that the group of NRA rebels was led by Commander Fred Rwigyema. I think Maj. Gen. Kahinda Otafiire, the out going Minister of Trade and Tourism was part of that Rwigyema group.
It was this group that actually brought the NRM\Museveni to power as its military exploits in Western Uganda broke the back of Obote’s government.
MUSEVENI’S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES
And during Museveni’s time, intelligence has always been ahead of other institutions in effectiveness.
At one time you recall how the late Col. Noble Mayombo appeared on a radio talk show (Andrew Mwenda live show (with Besigye on-line from South Africa) and read out how Besigye had planned an armed rebellion.
Mayombo amazed the country when he detailed every thing that Besigye was planning, whom he had met, what they had discussed, what he had been given and things like that.
It turned out that the PRA died a still birth because Ugandan intelligence knew so much about what they were planning to do.
It’s believed that Kampala survived the 1998 Al-Qaeda bombings that hit Nairobi and Dar es Salaam because of impeccable intelligence gathering.
Ugandan intelligence also easily captured those who bombed Kampala when football fans were watching World Cup in July 2010 at Kyadondo Rugby Club and Kabalagala.
This time President Museveni had indeed got reports about what Besigye was planning to do after losing the February 2011 elections.
But the President made one of the gravest mistakes in security and ignored the information; never despise intelligence information however silly it may be.
SOURCE: DAILY MONITOR, 27 MAY 2011
Dr Besigye speaks to Inspector Mukite during the walk-to-work demo at Kasangati.
A police officer who failed to block Kizza Besigye from accessing inner Kampala on Monday to launch the drive, ride-and-hoot segment of the demonstration over soaring fuel and food prices, has been suspended, officials have said.
Inspector Collins Mukite, until Monday the OC Kasangati Police Station, is the most junior to join a growing list of hitherto senior security officers indicted for mishandling the walk-to-work demonstration or Dr Besigye himself.
The officer has been charged with “neglect of duty”, according to Police Spokesperson Judith Nabakooba. She, however, denied that the reprimand followed his failure to stop Dr Besigye, who was last week put under ‘preventive arrest’, from leaving his home.
Despite heavy deployment by police, who even blocked journalists from accessing his house in Kasangati, the opposition politician was later allowed to drive to the inner-city, and he used the day’s evening to blow a vuvuzela in town to launch the daily 5pm, five-minute hoot campaign.
Despite heavy deployment by police, who even blocked journalists from accessing his house in Kasangati, the opposition politician was later allowed to drive to the inner-city, and he used the day’s evening to blow a vuvuzela in town to launch the daily 5pm, five-minute hoot campaign.
In a telephone interview on Tuesday, Ms Nabakooba said: “He failed to deploy the men under him. They weren’t patrolling the area and he was nowhere to be seen.”
District Police Commander James Ruhweza, who is IP Mukite’s direct supervisor, executed the orders, citing Police Act provisions.
District Police Commander James Ruhweza, who is IP Mukite’s direct supervisor, executed the orders, citing Police Act provisions.
Kasangati in Wakiso District, where Dr Besigye resides, has since April 11 when the walk-to-work protests began, become a dicey operational area for security officers.
A number have had their careers turned upside down for not handling the former presidential candidate as preferred by their supervisors.
A number have had their careers turned upside down for not handling the former presidential candidate as preferred by their supervisors.
A top police officer, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, said pressure on them and other commanders has heightened since commencement of the protests summoned by the pressure group, Activists for Change. The officer said many colleagues have reportedly pleaded not to be sent on such assignment.
Former Deputy CID director Moses Sakira who failed to put together evidence for a treason case President Museveni pressed against Dr Besigye, alleging he accused him during campaigns of selling Lake Kyoga to foreigners, was the first to be suspended.
Later Jinja Road Police Operations Commander, Mr Alphonse Mutabazi, who chose to escort UPC president Olara Otunnu in his defiance walk from Nakawa Market, a city suburb, to the party headquarters at Uganda House, was briefly fired and only re-deployed to Police Mechanical department following public outcry.
A week ago, Assistant Inspector General of Police and Interpol head, Francis Rwego, and Military Police commander, Lt. Col. Michael Kabango, assigned to oversee security operations during Dr Besigye’s May 12 homecoming, were fired after the crowd accompanying the opposition politician paralysed traffic, and engaged in running battles with soldiers and police, for about nine hours.
Some visiting heads of state, among them Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan, who had come to attend President Museveni’s swearing-in ceremony, reportedly got caught up in the clashes.
Lt. Col. Kabango and Mr Rwego were accused of failing to clear Dr Besigye’s supporters off the thoroughfare to the Airport within an hour as planned.
In a separate interview, Deputy Police Spokesman Vincent Ssekatte, said “IP Mukite abandoned his station at night”
In a separate interview, Deputy Police Spokesman Vincent Ssekatte, said “IP Mukite abandoned his station at night”
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Uganda warning over horn-honking protest
The campaigners are urging people without cars to also participate by whistling or blowing vuvuzelas
Ugandan police have warned people planning to hoot car horns in protest at the rising cost of living they will face arrest for noise pollution.
The opposition call to honk horns or whistle five times at 1700 local time (1400 GMT) was to complement the "walk-to-work" protest begun in April.
A BBC reporter says some honking could be heard at the appointed time, but it was rather low key in some areas.
Rights groups have criticised the violent crackdown on recent protests.
They say at least nine people have died, while the government accuses the opposition of trying to organise an Egypt-style uprising after losing an election in February.
Opposition leader Kizza Besigye says the vote was rigged.
Dr Besigye has been arrested four times and placed under preventative arrest once since the protests against the rising cost of food and fuel began.
Henry Bellingham, the UK's minister for Africa, called on President Yoweri Museveni to rise above "petty party politics".
He said the "very tough tactics" used against Dr Besigye were a concern for the UK government, one of Uganda's largest aid donors.
"President Museveni won with a big majority, he should now be magnanimous, he should be statesman-like, he should rise above trying to make any moves against the opposition," Mr Bellingham told the BBC's Network Africa programme.
"[He should] carry on the excellent work which he's doing in many ways in terms of the prosperity agenda in Uganda [and] counter-terrorism.
"On all these fronts Museveni has been doing a good job, but I think it demeans him and his government to use excessive force and these tactics against the opposition."
Mr Museveni was sworn in for a fourth term as president earlier this month.
He says he wants a new law to deny bail for six months to those arrested for rioting or causing economic sabotage.
'Bang saucepans'
Police spokesperson Ibin Ssenkumbi said the force's stance on the horn protest would the be same as the "walk-to-work" campaign.
"[The] Car hooting act is illegal… what I can say is that any protester will be subject to arrest," he is quoted by Uganda's Daily Monitor newspaper as saying.
Another police spokesman, Vincent Ssekate, cited a law against noise pollution and told the BBC anyone hooting near a hospital or school would definitely be picked up.
The BBC's Joshua Mmali in the capital, Kampala, says at 1700 local time some car horns could be heard, especially in central areas of the city where the big bus and taxi stations and main markets are situated.
But in the business and banking district the call was the largely ignored, and the horns did not ring out loudly together across the city, he says.
Mathias Mpuuga, the opposition MP behind the Activists for Change campaign who had urged those without a car to join in by banging saucepans, blowing vuvuzelas, said he was satisfied with the initial response.
"In downtown Kampala the noise was really immense, for me this is encouraging," he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.
"I know for a fact that upmarket Kampala is risk adverse. Those upscale perhaps have enough to eat, those downtown are the people who are downtrodden and have to have the message heard."
He said more people would get involved and the "drive, ride and hoot" campaign would be a daily event.
'Partisan police'
Earlier, Mr Mpuuga questioned whether anything was now legal in Uganda - after recent walk-to-work protests were broken up by the police.
He said the police force was over-enthusiastic and partisan, adding it was like a robot being controlled from State House.
BBC East Africa correspondent Will Ross says the government sees sinister motives in the opposition's protests and accuses it of encouraging violence and chaos.
Last month, riots broke out in Kampala in protest at the rough treatment meted out to Dr Besigye by the security services during his arrest on 29 April.
Plain-clothed policemen were filmed beating up his supporters, smashing the window of his car and dousing the inside with pepper spray and tear gas before manhandling him into a vehicle and driving off.
The authorities say Dr Besigye provoked them - and he was charged with inciting violence.
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